Bitcoin Price Holds Steady Amid Iran Conflict Fears

Bitcoin (BTC) held broadly steady in today’s trading, falling just 1.3% to $105,552 in the past 24 hours, amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

This continues what has been a relatively stable month for BTC, which has gained 1.6% in the past 30 days despite ongoing Trump administration tariff fears, according to CoinGecko data—though it still remains over $5,000 shy of the $111,970 all-time high it hit on May 22, 2025.

Despite no word yet of a ceasefire as drone strikes hit Tehran and Tel Aviv, and warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump that Tehran residents should “immediately evacuate,” Bitcoin remained largely in line with equities’ similarly steady performance. The S&P 500 index rose 0.94% in the past 24 hours and is up 0.3% since Israel attacked Iran on Friday last week.

In remarks Tuesday morning, Trump stated that he wants “a real end” to the conflict between Iran and Israel, claiming that he is looking at “better than a ceasefire.”

Some institutional investors may even be perceiving recent tensions as a buying opportunity. According to data from Farside Investors, $408.6 million flowed into Bitcoin ETFs on Monday, the second-highest day of inflows this month.

However, regardless of BTC’s recent stability, the majority of investors are not holding out for any significant short-term increases. According to data from on-chain prediction market Myriad, over 77% of predictors do not expect BTC to close over $107,000 today (disclosure: Myriad was launched by Decrypt’s parent company DASTAN).

Some analysts told Decrypt that traders may have to wait until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer for prices to move significantly. Rajiv Sawhney, Head of International Portfolio Management at Wave Digital Assets, expects BTC to remain at the $103,000 to $109,000 level “until we get more clarity around the U.S.’s involvement in the situation, and if they have to get more involved.”

Though he believes that BTC rising from here “will be difficult in the short term,” he thinks that “large-scale BTC liquidations are less likely due to overleverage and excessive open interest,” and institutional investors will continue to buy BTC over the medium term.

“Risk assets are now on the defensive, as Israel and Iran face the prospect of further escalation and contagion, both macroeconomically and geopolitically,” he added.

How the market views Bitcoin

Illia Otychenko, Lead Analyst at CEX.IO, believes that Bitcoin’s relative resilience during the ongoing Middle East tensions is “yet another confirmation of its growing role as a hedging asset.”

“Historically, Bitcoin tends to initially move in sync with traditional risk assets during episodes of geopolitical or macroeconomic uncertainty,” he said, adding that, “it often demonstrates a stronger recovery once the initial panic fades.”

“There are already signs of this pattern, with a quick rebound after briefly dipping below $102,000,” Otychenko added.

Otychenko attributed this behaviour to Bitcoin’s “structural optimism,” saying the market is “inherently forward-looking.”

Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at RealVision, believes that the cryptocurrency’s recent stability could be a sign that Bitcoin is increasingly being perceived as less of a “risk-on” asset—a type of value sought by investors in times of economic uncertainty.

While BTC is still treated as a risk-on asset by fast money traders, its medium-to long-term trajectory is increasingly shaped by large allocators who see its emergence as a non-sovereign, neutral bearer asset—like digital gold. That’s why it may trade like risk in the short term… pic.twitter.com/MvOc9LpJU1

— Jamie Coutts CMT (@Jamie1Coutts) June 16, 2025

Coutts pointed to BTC’s surprisingly steady price path in recent days, in comparison to the short-term spikes it experienced after other major geopolitical events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, or the Taliban’s recapture of Afghanistan’s government in 2021.

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