Will Bitcoin Fall Below $100,000 This Year After the Latest Decline? Here Are the Odds

Following the recent decline in cryptocurrency markets, prediction market Polymarket has updated its data on whether Bitcoin will fall below $100,000 by the end of the year.

According to data on the platform, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $100,000 before the end of 2025 has risen to 62%, with the odds increasing by 15% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin fell nearly 5% to $105,540 on Monday. This sharp decline wiped approximately $182 billion out of the crypto market. However, both Bitcoin and the broader market recovered somewhat by the end of the day. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $106,857, with the total crypto market value around $3.6 trillion.

Analysts say the decline may be due to comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week. Powell had previously emphasized in December that a rate cut was “not a certainty” and dampened market expectations for easing.

Analyst Simon Peters stated that following these announcements, the probability of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting dropped from 96% to below 70%.

*This is not investment advice.

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