Why Bitcoin will outperform the S&P 500, according to Michael Saylor

Michael Saylor of Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), formerly known as MicroStrategy, believes Bitcoin (BTC) will outperform the S&P 500 (SPY) by 6-8% annually.

In a recent interview, Saylor outlined annual targets of 12% for the S&P 500 and 18-20% for Bitcoin.

His reasoning is straightforward: Bitcoin doesn’t have the counterparty risk of corporate structures or currency exposure that plagues traditional stocks.

“Bitcoin is pure capital,” Saylor stated, noting it faces no tariff or supply chain issues, management problems, or political risks that burden S&P 500 companies.

Strategy price analysis

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy has paid off spectacularly. In fact, the company just closed at an all-time high market capitalization. The stock has climbed 22.30% over the past month, closing Thursday at $451.34, up 50.44% year-to-date.

$MSTR just closed at an all-time high market cap. pic.twitter.com/2MtLBczzzu

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) July 16, 2025

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has surged 10% over the past month, hitting new highs of $122,884 on Monday before pulling back to $118,583. Strategy announced in a Monday SEC filing that they acquired 4,225 Bitcoin for $472.5 million last week, continuing their aggressive accumulation.

Will Strategy join the S&P 500?

Strive Funds Bitcoin Strategy Vice President Jeff Walton announced on X that it’s the 12th day of the Strategy qualifying for S&P 500 inclusion. This milestone comes as the company has transformed from a software firm into what many consider a Bitcoin proxy investment.

Strategy tracking day 346$MSTR now ranked 83rd largest US company by market cap ($127.2B)

Fell 3 companies today. Between two companies that sell lawn mowers.

Day 12 of qualifying for S&P 500

21st largest publicly traded equity by volume (this metric has gotten more volatile… https://t.co/oUrV7QhAN5 pic.twitter.com/pXtMlLwxFt

— Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) July 18, 2025

The key breakthrough came from a Financial Accounting Standards Board rule change that allowed firms to record digital assets at fair value, finally enabling MicroStrategy to meet the profitability criteria that had been blocking S&P 500 inclusion.

Walton estimated the company will report a $14 billion profit in Q2, translating to roughly $11 billion in net profit over the past 12 months. However, qualifying doesn’t guarantee inclusion; the S&P 500 committee still has complete discretion and some analysts argue the firm now operates more like a closed-end fund than an operating business.

Strategy will release its latest earnings report on July 31 after the market close. The company has reported net losses for the past three quarters, although investors seem to be focused on Bitcoin’s appreciation rather than traditional software metrics.

Featured image via Shutterstock.

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