Odds of Bitcoin dropping below $100K by 2026 spike to 60%

The probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will fall below $100,000 before the start of 2026 has surged on crypto prediction platform Polymarket, reflecting growing bearish sentiment after a turbulent week for digital assets.

The market, which poses the question“Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?”, has seen odds spike from 47% on September 25 to 60% at the time of publication.

Earlier this week, when Bitcoin traded above $117,000, the same contract carried just a 44% chance, with confidence eroding just as quickly as price momentum fades.

BTC price analysis

Bitcoin now trades at $108,950, down more than 2% on the day and over 6% on the week. A red week in a move reflects broader weakness across the crypto market, which has suffered nearly $150 billion in market cap losses in the last 24 hours amid a wave of liquidations and risk-off flows.

Polymarket data shows that the total betting volume on the December 31, 2025, contract has climbed to $1.39 million, suggesting a surge of interest in hedging or speculating on the possibility of a deeper correction.

While prediction markets are not definitive forecasts, they provide a useful gauge of investor psychology. The rising odds point to mounting concerns that Bitcoin may struggle to hold support levels as macro pressures build and liquidity tightens.

Still, with three months left in 2025, the market remains divided, and sharp reversals in sentiment have been a hallmark of the Bitcoin cycle especially in ‘Uptober.’

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