Bitcoin price analysis after hitting new all-time high: further gains or return to range lows?

Bitcoin has surged into major resistance at $111,250 after a bullish expansion. Without volume confirmation, price risks rejection and another rotation back toward range lows near $98,270.

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again confronting a critical decision point as price trades into a long-standing high time frame resistance zone around $111,250. This level marks the current range high and has historically served as a ceiling for price action. Following a sharp bullish reaction from the value area high, BTC has made a strong push upward, but without sustained volume, the risk of rejection remains. Whether this area is broken with conviction or rejected again will likely dictate Bitcoin’s directional trend in the coming weeks and months.

Key technical points

• Resistance at $111,250: High time frame range top and key structural level.
• Bullish Reaction from Value Area High: Recent breakout was aggressive but lacks sustained volume.
• Still Range-Bound: Between $111,250 resistance and $98,270 support.

BTCUSD (4H) Chart, Source: TradingView

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has posted a bullish expansion, lifting off from the value area high and surging into high time frame resistance. The level at $111,250 is not a random price zone, it marks a critical structural resistance that has capped prior attempts at higher prices. Structurally, Bitcoin remains within a wide trading range, with historical rejections from both the range high and range low resulting in full oscillations between the two extremes.

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Despite the strength of the recent move, price has not yet confirmed a true breakout. A decisive breakout would require strong candle closures above resistance and, most importantly, sustained volume influx. So far, this has not occurred, leaving the door open to a liquidity grab scenario, where stop orders from short sellers are triggered just before price stalls and reverses.

If Bitcoin fails to push through $111,250 with volume-backed momentum, the likelihood of a range continuation increases. This would open the probability for a rotation back toward the lower boundary of the range, near $98,270, where resting liquidity remains uncollected. Such moves are typical in high time frame consolidations, where price oscillates between known liquidity zones until a true breakout or breakdown occurs.

Until a clear breakout confirms the change in structure, Bitcoin remains technically range-bound, and caution is warranted. Price is at resistance, and without bullish follow-through, the probability favors another leg down within the existing range.

What to expect in the coming price action

If Bitcoin fails to break above $111,250 with conviction and volume, expect a rotation lower toward $98,270. A breakout with strong volume, however, could trigger a new all-time high attempt.

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