Crypto Markets Brace for $11.7B BTC & $3.2B ETH Options Expiry

Cryptocurrency markets are keeping a close eye on a giant options expiry on Friday, August 29, 2025 of 11.68 billion bitcoin contracts with a max pain of 116,000 and 3.17 billion Ethereum contracts of 3,800. Traders anticipate a higher volatility level where market makers are setting their prices near the levels.

Max Pain & Market Mechanics

Max pain is the price at which there is a highest number of open options contracts that expire without value and this is the maximum payouts that sellers are paid. Bitcoin and Ethereum historically have price trends normalizing into high-value expiries with max pain as market makers hedge risk. The combined $14.85 billion notional value for this week’s expiry signals strong potential for short-term price manipulation or stabilization around these key points.

Souce: X post by @StackerSatoshi

Bitcoin has just passed through the range of 110,000 to 115,000, and the highest pain point of 116,000 is in reach. However, Ethereium has increased more than 26 percent in the past week and more than 50 percent in the last month, as the most recent price activity has been ranging between 4,000-4,700. Although the technical sounds are bullish, overbought technical indicators imply possible pullbacks, which are in line with market forces that seek to move ETH nearer to $3,800 at expiry. Liquidity inflows (via institutional activity via ETFs and staking products) still contribute to the scale of this event.

Scenarios Ahead & Strategy Tips

The high open interest may give rise to a volatility spike, which would cause severe liquidations or short squeezes. Directional breakouts are also common in post-expiry markets where hedging pressure will have relieved, and the market will offer potential trading opportunities throughout the weekend. Traders can also track put-call ratios, whereby Bitcoin has a bearish and Ethereum has a neutral to a bullish skew, and hedge using a short strangle or gamma scalping strategies to control risk.

The options expiry date of August 29, 2025, will be amongst the biggest notional values in recent months, exerting a tremendous pressure on the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum to gravitate towards their max pain points. Final-hour whale and market-maker positioning will determine whether this has a stabilizing impact or a volatility spurt.

Source