Crypto and Stocks Brace for Jerome Powell Speech Today: What to Expect?

Story Highlights

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak today, markets closely watch for rate cut cues

• CME Fed Watch Tool shows 97% chance of a rate cut in the next meeting

• Powell’s tone will drive either a rebound or a potential sell-off in crypto markets

Global markets are on edge as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell prepares to deliver his much awaited speech on “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” before the National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia. Notably, this is his first major appearance since the last Fed policy meeting in September.

Investors will be closely listening today for any hints for the next rate cut.

All Eyes on Powell’s Rate Signal

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. Powell has previously said that the central bank must carefully balance the risks of high inflation and a weakening job market in future rate decisions.

He described the situation as “challenging,” noting that inflation risks remain elevated while employment risks are becoming more visible.

Markets are now focused on whether Powell will signal monetary easing or maintain a cautious tone amid economic uncertainty.

Fed President Supports Further Rate Cuts

Philadelphia Fed President, Anna Paulson said Monday that growing risks to jobs make a stronger case for additional U.S. interest rate cuts. According to her, the trade tariffs are unlikely to push inflation as high as once feared.

“Monetary policy should be focused on balancing risks to maximum employment and price stability, which means moving policy towards a more neutral stance,” she said.

Paulson explained that underlying inflation, excluding the impact of tariffs, has improved. While labor market risks are increasing, she said they are not yet severe. She supported the September 25-basis-point cut, saying it “made sense”.

Looking ahead, Paulson said that further policy easing this year would be reasonable if economic and financial conditions evolve as expected.

She also pointed out uncertainty around the neutral interest rate and the pace at which the Fed should move toward it, calling for a careful and gradual approach through 2026.

Divided Fed? Hawks and Doves

Fed officials have been divided on the monetary policy outlook. Some worry Trump’s tariffs could push inflation higher while others think the Fed should act aggressively to support the job market. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in 97% odds of another 25-basis-point cut in October meeting.

J.P. Morgan expects two more cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, noting that only a significant change in the labor market could prevent an October rate cut.

Crypto Markets on Edge

This comes at a critical moment, after crypto markets saw a brutal sell-off triggered by the U.S.–China trade tensions. Last week, President Trump shook investors by announcing a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1, sparking one of the steepest crypto drops.

However, crypto markets have since shown signs of recovery. President Trump recently declared an end to the two-year-long Gaza war that had destabilized the broader Middle East, easing regional geopolitical tensions and boosting investor confidence in markets.

Powell’s remarks could be pivotal, setting the tone for how investors interpret the Fed’s next moves, offering either reassurance or shaking up already fragile markets.

Crypto Rally or Crypto Crash?

Markets could react sharply if Powell signals that interest rates will remain high for longer, which could trigger another wave of selling in both crypto and stocks. But a dovish tone or hints of future cuts could spark a rebound, boosting investor confidence.

With markets on edge, Powell’s speech could decide whether investors see the next phase as a crypto comeback or another correction.

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