Odds of December Fed rate cut plunge to 33% as BTC falls below $89K

The odds of an interest rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have plunged to 33% as “extreme fear” grips the crypto market and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dips below $89,000.

Investors placed the odds of a December rate cut at about 67% during the first week of November, with the odds dropping below 50% on Thursday, according to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Traders on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket forecast the odds of a December rate cut at about 70% and 67%, respectively. While higher than CME, traders in general appear more hesitant about rate cuts due to persistent fears about inflation, according to The Kobeissi Letter.

Interest rate target probabilities for the December FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

The plummeting odds of a December rate cut and declining crypto prices have sparked a panic, with some analysts now warning that the downturn could signal the start of an extended crypto bear market and falling asset prices.

The price of BTC falls below $89,000 as market sentiment hovers just above the yearly low

The price of BTC fell below $90,000 again on Wednesday after failing to defend the key support level and has been trading well below its 365-day moving average, a critical support level, for the last six days.

Bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) has also crossed below the 200-day EMA. This signal, known as the “death cross,” suggests further downside for BTC.

Bitcoin’s price action at the time of this writing. Price has closed below the 365-day moving average for the last six days. Source: TradingView

Some analysts now forecast a drop to $75,000, where the price could bottom out before rebounding by the end of 2025, while others speculate whether the cycle top is already in.

“The time for Bitcoin to bounce, if the cycle is not over, would start within the next week,” market analyst Benjamin Cowen said on Sunday.

“If no bounce occurs within 1 week, probably another dump before a larger rally back to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which would then mark a macro lower high,” Cowen added.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is hovering just above its yearly low, signaling caution among crypto investors. Source: CoinMarketCap

The forecasts came amid cratering crypto investor sentiment. Investor sentiment measured by the “Crypto Fear & Greed Index” is at 16 at the time of this writing, indicating “extreme fear” among investors.

This places crypto investor market sentiment at just one point above the yearly low, according to CoinMarketCap.

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